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Jane Street's $39.6 billion 2025 trading revenue is not evidence of abundant market making alpha.

It is evidence that market making alpha is extremely concentrated, acutely sensitive to competitive entry at the strategy level, and that the firms holding the strategies are spending tens of millions of dollars to prevent that entry.

The Jane Street-Millennium litigation record — SDNY 24-cv-02783 — is a primary-source data point on the marginal value of a single undisclosed pricing model. A 50% monthly profit decline from a single competitor entering a single strategy in a single national derivatives market.

The three structural levers that explain why the moat widens rather than compresses — and which one produces compounding returns the others cannot — are in the full piece.

patreon.com/posts/marke…

May 6
at
3:37 PM
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