Dubai World CDS moved from 70 to 654 basis points. The exit window was 19 days.

The spread was priced like sovereign credit before the standstill. It wasn't. Dubai World was a decree corporation — government-owned, no contractual guarantee, stated plainly in the establishment documents that were public before the trade.

Funds that shorted GCC credit broadly rather than Dubai World single-name gave back the gain after Abu Dhabi's December 14 rescue. Precision mattered. The legal flaw was entity-specific, not jurisdiction-wide.

The asset-based vs asset-backed distinction in the Nakheel sukuk — and what it meant for creditor recovery at the Decree 57 tribunal — is in the full piece.

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