Probability can be a really funny thing sometimes… Right now, both the Braves and the Mets have playoff odds above 50% — so they should each be feeling good, right?

Nope.

Most likely, only one of them can get in. They’re essentially 50-50 for that last wild card spot, they’re just splitting the off-chance that Arizona (or, very unlikely, San Diego) collapses and falls behind both of them. But the most probable situation is that 1 of either the Mets or Braves will miss the playoffs from here, despite both currently being more likely to make the playoffs than not.