This is an outstanding critical synthesis of Beckert's work and the broader challenges in economic historiography. Your point about counterfactual reasoning as a test for causal claims is particularly compelling. The Spain and Dutch Republic examples illustrate exactly why coercion-first models struggle: both had access to colonial wealth and extraction, yet neither industrialized. What your framework suggests is that we need a kind of institutional DNA analysis, where weidentify not just which factors were present but which specific combinations proved catalytic under particular conditions. Robert Allen's high-wage hypothesis gets at this, but even that may underweight how scientific culture and political fragmentation interacted to create feedback loops that made Britain's path self-reinforcing rather than accidental.