Really insightful analysis on the relative safe haven dynamics at play here.

Your point about 10y20y forward yields stripping out cyclical noise is particularly sharp becuase it reveals something the headline numbers obscure. While most focus on deleveraging or Fed expectations, the deterioration in traditional safe havens like Germany and Japan creates a gravity well effect for capital flows that's self-reinforcing in the near term.

One thing worth considering though is whether this "best of a bad bunch" premium actualy makes US debt sustainability worse. If Treasury yields stay artificially supressed relative to fiscal realities, it removes the market discipline that might otherwise force consolidation. We could be building an even larger cliff for whenthe relative advantage eventually erodes.