MercadoLibre’s 1Q26 was uncomfortable.

The commerce thesis worked: Brazil volume accelerated, unit shipping costs fell, and the logistics moat looks stronger.

But the stock didn’t work, because the market has moved to a harder question: can MELI actually capture the surplus it is creating, or will customers, sellers, competitors, and credit losses absorb too much of it?

This is our updated view: less “buy the dip,” more conditional conviction.