If you look at listed brokers, you’d probably think we are in a bull market, but the data shows something else. In fact, there are a lot of conflicting signals. Cash market turnover is still below where it peaked in late 2024. Net direct equity inflows, for example, are negative for the first time since FY19.

So where is there so much enthusiasm around capital markets related investment themes?

Could be the strong equity mutual fund flows and SIP flows. Gross SIP flows are at a record ~32,000 crores. But the major brokers offer direct mutual funds, so they don’t make anything, including us.

Speculative activity has held up despite everything. The MTF book across the industry has grown significantly. Our own book has grown from 0 to ~7000 crores in about 1.5 years.

Brokerage income as a ratio of client float for most listed brokers is around 40% or above. With us, it’s sub 9%. That means clients are trading far more with these platforms relative to the funds they hold there. Could be all triggers and nudges to trade?

Our own philosophy has always been to not push or induce customers to trade. In trading, for most people, fewer trades are always better. That means leaving a lot of revenue on the table. Whether that’s the right call, time will tell.

So is it a bull market? The answer is it depends on where you are looking.