Make money doing the work you believe in

Two of the most important charts in finance.

The 10-Year Treasury yield sits at 4.574%. The 30-Year at 5.115%.

Neither is new. Rates have been range-bound for the better part of two years, moving between roughly 3.60% and 4.80% on the 10-Year.

The problem is what the equity market has built into that range.

Stocks trading at 25x-28x forward earnings were not priced for rates staying here. They were priced for rates falling. Rate cuts were a consensus. Multiple expansion was the trade.

That bet has not paid off. And with mortgage rates pushing higher, the collateral damage is spreading beyond equities. A housing market that needed 5% rates to function is not getting them.

Perfection was priced in. Higher-for-longer was not.

Risk management should always be the top priority.

May 15
at
2:29 PM
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