With another relatively high but expected inflation reading, it is worth looking at the forecast by the Cleveland Fed - Q2 (april-june) is expected to slow down significantly. Since April and May were high, June would need to see a big drop for this forecast to align. Assuming their model is correct, this would suggest the inflation slow down coming in the summer months. June and July will be significant for the inflation trajectory.

May 26, 2023
at
2:13 PM