Research shows that concentrated trade shocks, such as NAFTA, increased mortality.

Two recent economic papers find that U.S. regions most exposed to Mexican import competition saw higher mortality, especially among working‑age men and elderly adults.

• Mortality rose ~0.7% on average after NAFTA;

• On the most exposed areas, mortality increases reached 4%;

• Working‑age men accounted for a third of the rise;

• Elderly widows were disproportionately affected, likely due to reduced financial support from laid‑off children

When mortality is factored in, researchers estimate U.S. welfare may have declined from entering into NAFTA.

Can we improve free trade agreements?

Cash transfers alone might not solve the problems, as some studies show they can worsen mortality. 'In‑kind' support appears safer. With concentrated trade shocks, focus on transition policies is essential.