If indeed “threshold” isn’t too strong a word for what lies ahead, the company that gets there first could become enduringly dominant. In 2023, when Anthropic was doing a $5 billion investment round, the deck it sent to investors included this line: “We believe that companies that train the best 2025/26 models will be too far ahead for anyone to catch up in subsequent cycles.” Well, if the coming threshold is really a threshold, and Amodei is right about how soon it could get here, maybe he should change “companies” to “the company.” Maybe it will be winner take all.