Without trying to catalog all the reasons why Biden isn’t running away with the election — and the comments note many — I come back to the fact that Biden was and is a weak candidate. His Senate career was long yet not very notable. The same could be said of his time as VP (which is true of almost all VP’s). Coming into 2020, he was old, not very popular, not energetic and very much a career DC pol. His case for nomination seemed to boil down to “it’s his turn”, a rationale that echoed what many active Democratic felt about Hillary Clinton. Such sentiments may help with gaining the nomination but backfire badly in a general election.

Democrats have been associated with big government since Roosevelt. But the Democrats who have won the WH ever since all had personal qualities that cut through the usual associations. Truman won because he could run against the establishment. Kennedy was a complete departure from any previous candidate — young, a war hero, bright and forward-looking with a beautiful wife and children. While Johnson was the prototypical Washington pol, he ran in 1964 on a platform of continuing Kennedy’s legacy and had a string of legislative successes. Carter was the anti-DC candidate, a moralistic outsider running in the wake of Watergate against a weak Ford. Clinton was also an outsider, young, heavily credentialed with enormous energy who was a born retail politician. Finally Obama was young, black and sharp, new enough to project idealism with a non-threatening wonkishness.

Biden offers nothing new — he looks and acts like the DC insider that he was and is. There is nothing unique or special about him as a candidate. He’s not a truth teller like Sanders or anything like an outsider. His strongest characteristic in 2020 was not being Donald Trump. This remains the case, notwithstanding an exceptional record as president. Unfortunately, voters rarely reward competence — see, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, H.R. Clinton.

Sadly, if Biden wins, it will be because, once again, he was not Trump. There will be other forces at play that can help or hurt but, as a candidate, he remains mediocre. If he could harness his energy and go for broke on the campaign trail and in the debates (if they occur), Biden could show a new side to voters and make them less concerned about his age. His staff do not seem to have confidence in him to pull something like that off. I hope they change their minds — soon.