For today’s Wheel Strategy setup, I’m selling a CSP for a potential 4.63% return on my money in 30 days, that’s 73% annualized, or get to own the stock at a discount and sell covered calls.
I’m rotating back into a familiar name today that has been a consistent winner for me and one that I’ve already completed a profitable Wheel cycle on in the past. After recently taking profits, I’m getting another opportunity to step back in and start the process over.
What catches my attention here is that the stock remains in a healthy longer-term uptrend but has pulled back enough to create an attractive entry. Rather than chasing price higher, I’m able to place my strike well below the current market and just beneath a key support area that lines up closely with the 50-day moving average. That gives me a solid cushion if the stock experiences additional short-term weakness.
The technical picture remains constructive. The moving averages are still trending higher, momentum has cooled without breaking the trend, and the premium being offered is attractive relative to the risk I’m taking.
This setup comes with a 75% Probability of Profit (POP), meaning the odds currently favor a profitable outcome, and a 70% Probability of Worthlessness (POW), meaning there’s a strong chance the option expires worthless and I keep the entire premium. My breakeven sits even lower than the strike, providing an additional layer of downside protection.
If the option expires worthless, I’ll happily collect the premium and look for the next opportunity. If shares get put to me, I’ll be acquiring a stock I remain bullish on at a price I’d be comfortable owning and working through another covered call cycle.
Here’s what I plotted out for today’s entry.