Thanks. Well, it's not a life altering amount (yet?) since as I mentioned it's in a smaller side portfolio where I'm experimenting by broadening out. I'm writing mainly to share, clarify my thoughts and hopefully inspire/motivate others who might have similar inclinations.

You ask an astute question about Bloom's ability to meet demand, so let me take a stab the best I can. I guess the answer depends on what the demand is ultimately. Meeting the incremental demands of the entire grid for the country is for sure hard. What I mean is the marginal demand for high priority DCs that are really constrained by power and willing to spend, can be met. Now many DCs would want the diversification of being grid connected to begin with or later if available so it's not like all of them will go this route.

So, what could Bloom deliver? Bloom has so far delivered about 1.5 GW of installed capacity in its life. But they currently have capacity to produce about 1GW per year and have already announced plans to increase that to 2GW in 2026. They have two production facilities in Newark, Delaware and Fremont, CA that can be expanded further without a very high level of CapEx. It's in the order I think of $100M per GW of capacity.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the same modular nature of their power generation that helps their reliability also I believe helps in production. It is similar to semiconductors in the sense that once you perfect the process/recipe/flow then you are replicating it at a mass scale. Incidentally, Intel might be giving up "Copy Exact", but Bloom mentions that their production facilities use such a "Copy Exact" methodology where they can easily stand up another facility by copying existing ones. I believe there are other aspects of getting the "yield" of their ceramic cells and stacks that are similar. You still need to setup the factory/fab but then the incremental cost/effort isn't that big. Of course, it's not quite as efficient as shipping small silicon dies. We are still talking about a bunch of medium sized cabinets full of ceramic stacks, metal, piping etc. But compare that to forging/casting and assembling huge CCGT gas turbine assemblies. Even shipping those things are non-trivial. They are also backlogged till 2030. One of my uncle happens to be a metallurgical engineer with experience in forging (nothing fancy like turbines) so I have some directionally correct knowledge about what it probably takes.

If there really is a need, some of the big names who have even speculatively talked to the extent of their own semi fabs, could I suppose easily spend the money to increase the production of SOFCs either for Bloom or any other viable competition that manages to show up. And you don't need super expensive Litho machines from ASML to make this happen. Certainly, it will not take till 2030 to increase capacity.

Now some might object that SOFCs are filled with rare earth, but I believe the Bloom stack is a Scandium-stabilized Zirconia and certainly they have claimed that their main modules are not dependent on materials from China or any war-torn regions. This can only mean Scandium which is also produced outside of China in Philippines (and Zirconium is not a problem).

Finally, none of this is proof that just because they can do it, they will be able to do it for sure. Execution is still key. But we do have some track record to go on.