Airlines are going under, Singapore jet fuel cracks above $150 per barrel, gasoline is at $4.5/gallon and diesel at $5.6/gallon on average in the US. And this is only getting worst with oil is set to reach $130-150/bbl by the end of the month and dwindling inventories.

Welcome to the refining/fuel crisis. Everybody talks about oil, but fuels are the real story. Some refiners are about to print money.

This is a three-part deep dive on why the 2026 Middle East shock is a product supply crisis, not a crude crisis and the framework for understanding what comes next.

• Part 1 establishes the foundation: why refined fuels are non-negotiable, how the value chain physically works, and why the 2026 disruption is structurally different from every previous oil shock.

• Part 2 maps the geography of the crisis.

• Part 3 (coming Wednesday) delivers the Investor Playbook, with paid subscribers voting on which company gets the first dedicated deep dive.