Here are my longs:

Utilities - I am currently playing this with XLU leaps. The setup for utilities is unique because the grid needs investment to support increasing electricity usage, so after the war ends, XLU should continue its march forward. I also presume utilities will be in focus to strengthen grid security post-war. In a recessionary scenario, utilities tend to outperform, as seen in down years over the past ~25 years.

Brazil - a bit risky if there is a sovereign debt crisis, but my thinking here is that Brazil has already embarked on a rate-cutting cycle. Traders had initially priced in ~300bps of cuts prior to the conflict, now it stands at ~175bps, which if executed would bring rates down to ~13.25%. Real rates are already at ~2-decade highs and are the highest globally, and there is a framework to reduce them as inflation has come within the BCB’s bands. Brazil is a net exporter of energy, so destroyed ME infrastructure may lead to incremental demand for them. They also have a good relationship with China, so they may be able to import refined products (fertilizers, etc.) through that channel. I also think once the war ends, the dollar sees a sharp decline, which should benefit EMs. I have written about my Brazil thesis (pre-conflict) as well as specific equity ideas. I am long Brazil via EWZ leaps and Brazilian stocks.

Tobacco - BTI/BATS is my play. Buyback machine, and the div yield will likely still be higher than the long-end in Scenario 1. Inelastic demand, I’d assume people smoke more in a recession, lol. It should also do well in a bull market given the business is back to re-acceleration with oral tobacco. I’ve written a lot about BTI on my X. Worst case, you harvest the ~6% yield.

Gold - Does well in both inflation and recession, good geopolitical hedge. Central banks continue ramping purchases. I think the risk-off selling tied to positioning has largely played out and the fundamentals are back in focus. I am unsure about miners given rising ASIC, but there are probably cheap plays there. Personally, I would stick with GLD ETF for now.

China tech - It may be too early to call a bottom, but it really seems like China has been pricing this in since early February. China has been building reserves since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and has relationships with both Iran and Russia.

FXI and KWEB showed good relative outperformance on Friday. My favorite play in China tech is VNET, pitch linked below (as of Jan 29, pre-4Q25 selloff). I have also written extensively on my thoughts around the 4Q25 ER and the conservative guide. Check out my Substack profile for that.

Energy - Like it or not, oil is going to be higher for longer, even in a resolution. The value of refining assets has especially gone up in this crisis, SU (Suncor) is one of my favorite plays here. In natural gas, U.S. NGL players are very well positioned. I like AR (Antero Resources) for now, with a strong FCF yield.