"Karpathy just told us what startups to build for 2026.

I watched the full talk. Then killed 3 of my own projects.

They all failed one test.

Here's why most AI startups being built right now won't survive the next model release:

1️⃣ The menu gen test

Last year Karpathy built an entire app that turns menus into AI food images.

This year he did the same thing with a single prompt.

The app didn't fail. It became unnecessary.

The test: could one multimodal prompt replace what you're building?

If yes, you're building plumbing the next model eats for free.

2️⃣ Software 3.0 changes what counts

1.0: handwritten code

2.0: trained neural networks

3.0: the LLM IS the computer. Prompts are code. Context window is your lever.

Most ""AI startups"" raising $2-5M are building Software 1.0 plumbing around Software 3.0 capabilities.

3️⃣ What Karpathy says to build instead

→ Tools that enhance understanding, not speed

A strategy brain for your company. Markdown in a folder. Knows your goals, market, constraints. Ask it before building anything. It tells you when you're drifting.

→ Agent-first infrastructure

Everything today is built for humans. Documents. Dashboards. Install flows.

Build for agents. APIs they can discover. Strip the human UI. LLM.txt on every product.

→ Verifiable domain capabilities

Models dominate code because code is verifiable.

Find niches with verifiability that frontier labs won't touch. Fine-tune. Own it.

→ Apps that could ONLY exist because of Software 3.0

Not faster spreadsheets. Not AI wrappers on old workflows.

Entirely new things that reasoning models make possible for the first time.

4️⃣ The test before you build anything

→ Can a single multimodal prompt replace this?

→ Will the next model release make this native?

→ Does this require Software 3.0 to exist?

If your project doesn't pass all three, the market will kill it before you ship.

The startups that win in 2026 aren't building more apps.

They're building things that couldn't exist before December 2025.

Which of Karpathy's four criteria does your current project hit? 👇

💾 Bookmark this before you start your next project.

♻️ Repost for someone building an app the next model release will replace"