Currently gripping the oil market is that even a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow would do little to ease the situation — over 180 million barrels are currently stranded aboard tankers at sea.

Those vessels would first need to offload their cargo, a process that alone would require 35 to 45 days.

Once emptied, the tankers would need to make their way back to the Middle East — a journey of an additional 25 to 30 days.

At the same time, separate ships would be heading toward Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq to take on new loads — adding yet another 25 to 30 days to the timeline.

In short, normal supply flows simply cannot be restored overnight, regardless of what happens at the Strait.

This logistical gridlock is precisely what is pushing the oil market toward a critical breaking point.

A mirror image of this kind of physical disruption played out during COVID, when OPEC+ struck a landmark deal to slash production by 10 million barrels per day.

The problem was that the cuts arrived too late — demand had already collapsed. Worse still, the agreement was reached in early April while the cuts weren't set to kick in until May, driving oil prices into freefall just two weeks later.

Temper your expectations accordingly.