Good morning!

Will this week trade like last Friday (red) or the rest of last week (green)?

Yields will decide.

Friday reset: $GSPC -1.2% (flat on week +0.1%), $IXIC -1.5% (-0.1% wk), $DJI -1.1% (-0.2% wk). $TNX broke 4.5% and closed ∼4.6% as Iran oil fears re-priced Fed hikes.

1. The week ahead — lighter calendar, heavy hitter

After weeks of data dumps, it's all about $NVDA on Wednesday.

$NVDA just crossed $5.7T market cap, world's largest. Jensen Huang is fresh off the Trump-Xi trip to Beijing

UBS: investors are oddly apathetic into the print, good setup for a beat

Watch for China color: H200 chips now cleared for $BABA, Tencent $700, ByteDance, $JD (75k units approved)

BofA wants commentary on competition: $AMD, $AVGO, and IPO $CBRS

Street expects $1.78 EPS on $79.2B revenue

Also on deck:

Retail read: $TGT (Wed), $WMT (Thu) — K-shaped consumer in focus

Travel: $RYAAY today

Defense/IT: $BAH Friday

Data: NY Fed services today, U-Mich sentiment/inflation expectations Friday

2. The K-shaped economy shows up at the pump

BofA: lower-income households cut gas use the most, so their nominal spending rose least. Higher-income households barely cut, so their spending jumped most.

Iran war impact: only ∼10% of Americans canceled trips, but high earners are still increasing travel spend while middle/low earners trade down on hotels and trip count. Energy inflation hits unevenly.

3. Is the commodity supercycle back?

Carlyle's Jeff Currie calls it "the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history."

Thesis:

AI needs physical stuff: energy, copper, metals, compute power. Mag 7 to spend >$700B capex in 2026

Iran shock = 13.7M bpd lost per Goldman, biggest ever. Even post-war, Persian Gulf supply is permanently riskier

Capital chased AI software while ignoring hard assets, those assets quietly became best performers of the decade

World shifting from HAGO (hard assets, global operations) to HALO (hard assets, local operations)

Translation: "Revenge of the Old Economy."

Earnings to watch

Tue: $HD

Wed: $NVDA, $INTU

Thu: $WMT

Fri: $BAH

Trade setup:

$GSPC held 7,500 into Friday's yield spike. If $TNX stays above 4.6%, growth sells off. If $NVDA delivers China upside and beats $79B, AI leadership re-asserts. Watch $TGT and $WMT for confirmation that the low-end consumer is cracking while the high-end keeps spending.