My latest dispatch.

Retail sales for February were released this morning — they beat expectations, but the weather was already telling you this.

The entire western half of the country was historically warm in February — Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Colorado all ranked as the warmest on record over 132 years. Dry conditions across the same geography kept consumers moving.

But February is in the rearview. Gas prices are above $4. Inflation anxiety is back. The Iran war is the macro overlay that changes everything going forward.