I was talking with an younger ex colleague. He’s 30 and already an avid and active “investor” even though by my categorization, he’s more of trader/speculator. Both of these things are remarkable.

Previous generations did not get involved in markets till later, 50s usually. Second, younger investors having never known a market like 2008 and using gamified apps like Robin Hood are more daring, risk insensitive, willing to bet the farm on a single stock or option.

When I see stocks like Micron Technology go from $60 to $400 on the AI “story”, for me this feels crazy. To younger folks active in the markets, they just think price go up - keep buying. And who can fault them for seeing markets like this right now. Still, the history of markets is the same, patterns repeat. Bubbles end. Crazy behavior eventually gets punished.

I’m not expecting a crash or a crisis. What I expect is a long period of disappointing returns for those with very high expectations. In this kind of a market focusing on what is underowned, undervalued and unloved I believe will be the critical factors. The market right now is too wedded to popular themes and stocks and is pricing them as if the future is certain and that this time is different. I’m not in that camp.