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I suspect what we are seeing in the PPI is the introduction of new price pressures post-COVID which are becoming apparent in the aftermath of the 2022 hyperinflation cycle.

Exactly what those price pressures might be I have not yet worked out, but several price relationships are breaking down in recent years.

The fundamental drivers of prices and inflation have not changed, but it is becoming increasingly clear the economic environment is changing. Trade relationships are becoming frayed. Supply chains are being revealed as more brittle and more fragile than previously believed. Geopolitical tensions are starting to call into question the future of the post-WW2 maritime trading order.

The net effect is to scramble many of the assumptions on which prevailing economic models are built.

This is where corporate media and Wall Street I believe have missed the boat. They're applying economic models to interpret the data which are increasingly out of sync with the data. The models are making less and less sense, and so are the conclusions.

The breakdown of service vs goods inflation is really interesting especially when services jumped 0.74% while goods stayed flat. I've seen a lot of people in my network just repeating "tariffs=inflation" as if it's gospel but this data clearly shows way more dynamics at play. That divergence between PPI and CPI correlation post-2022 is s…

Feb 3
at
11:35 PM

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