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The Islamabad talks are not making any headway in their first day.
But is progress still being made?
Iran does not seem to have made any serious refutation of US reports that it lacks the tools and the technical skills to remove the mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz.
As with land mines, removing nautical mines is far more difficult than placing them. The U.S. military lacks robust mine removal capabilities, relying on littoral combat ships equipped with mine sweeping capabilities. Iran also does not have the capability of quickly removing mines, even the ones it planted.
It may not even know where all of them are.
The US response has been to send in US Navy vessels to clear the mines under the cover of ceasefire and the Islamabad talks.
These reports suggest two things:
Iran, for all its bluster, is really not in control of the Strait. If it cannot remove and cannot locate the mines it cannot offer safe passage to vessels seeking transit, whether they pay a “toll” or not.
If the US removes the mines Iran's bargaining position in Islamabad collapses. Their bargaining position starts out strong, as the Strait is still closed, but degrades rapidly over time. Iran needs to make a deal fast while it has leverage, and the US has no reason to rush, as the real Strait reopening is already taking place independent of the talks.
No progress in the talks may suit the Trump Administration just fine.
