Notes
Both crude oil and gasoline futures are coming off recent lows.
More importantly, those lows are where the floor has been for energy prices since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022.
While the rise of the past few days is showing signs of petering out, market energy prices do not suggest energy price deflation will be a significant force in coming months.
Remove energy price deflation from the mix and consumer price inflation quickly ratchets higher.
Powell is going to be so mad inflation won’t play by his rules.
