Inflation is coming.

The coming work stoppage threatens to significantly snarl the nation’s supply chain, potentially leading to higher prices and delays in goods reaching households and businesses if it drags on for weeks. That’s because the strike by members of the International Longshoremen’s Association could cause 36 ports — which handle roughly half of the goods shipped into and out of the U.S. — to shutter operations.

ILA confirmed over the weekend that its members would hit the picket lines at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. In a Monday update, the union blamed the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents the ports, for continuing to “to block the path” toward an agreement before the contract deadline.

apnews.com/article/port-strike-ila-dock…

From the standpoint of consumers and suppliers alike, it does not matter which side is more culpable in the coming work stoppage. What matters is that we are facing a major work stoppage at some of this country’s busiest ports.

Goods will not be moving through these ports. Which means goods will not be making it onto store shelves. Parts will not be making it to some car mechanics. A host of intermediary goods will not reach assembly lines, further snarling production and causing manufacturing even more pain in this country.

It will take a few days, perhaps even a few weeks, for the impacts to be felt at the cash register, but the impacts will be felt, in the form of higher prices for fewer goods.

With service price inflation already running closer to 4% than 2% year on year, and energy price deflation coming to an end, as crude oil prices are showing signs of having moved off a floor price earlier in this month, the inflationary shock that we will see in October will be significant—a month on month increase in the CPI could easily top a percentage point.

If price inflation does spike to that significant a degree, the Fed will be in a policy bind come November—do they proceed with the rate cuts the markets have been anticipating or do they stand pat?

If this strike endures for any significant length of time it will have a dramatic impact on the economy, on inflation, and on the election.

This election cycle’s “October surprise”: renewed inflation. Joy.