PayPal below $60 isn't cheap—it's fairly priced for a business losing strategic relevance.
Take rates have been compressing for years as they chase volume through lower-margin partnerships. The "proprietary data" advantage isn't being monetized—they haven't built differentiated lending, advertising, or risk-scoring products that justify a premium multiple. Meanwhile, Block is building actual financial ecosystems that create switching costs. PayPal is a checkout button.
Consumer trust doesn't translate to pricing power when consumers don't think about which rails their payment runs on. If Shopify or Amazon prioritizes a different processor, PayPal loses volume overnight.
The single-digit P/E is the market saying this is a slow-growth utility in a winner-take-most space where PayPal isn't winning. What's your thesis for re-rating—new management, product innovation, or just "it's cheap because it used to be expensive"?
Why does $PYPL not work from here? Back below $60/share.
I'm not owning it (owned it in the past below $60 though), but I feel like it's hard to argue that an inflation-hedged business with a ton of proprietary data and high consumer mind share & trust – and yes, it is a rather mature business operating in an intensely competitive space …
Jan 6
at
2:28 AM
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