Solid write-up. The one frame that helped me as an equity investor: Bitcoin is the cleanest liquidity barometer because it has no cash-flow anchor. That’s why “valuation” tools like MVRV are useful but incomplete—they tell you positioning vs its own history, not the macro wind.

The simple synthesis that works in practice:

• MVRV = where you are in the cycle (internal froth vs fear)

• Liquidity (global M2 / balance-sheet impulse) = whether the wind is helping or hurting When they align, you can size and rebalance with confidence. When they diverge, that’s when people get chopped up.

And the real risk isn’t being wrong on Bitcoin—it’s having no rules and turning volatility into a forced decision at the worst time.