11:47 AM. Pulled up the market indicators.

Valuations: expensive. S&P P/E at 31x.

Credit: stress. High yield spreads at 682 bps, deteriorating for 90 days.

Sentiment: Fear & Greed at 26.

That combination has a name: a market priced for good news and hedging for bad.

Something has to give. It usually isn't the price — not all at once. It's the narrative, in the slow grind where everyone gradually stops believing the headline number.