The circular relationship between debt and liquidity is the part that gets mispriced in every cycle — when refinancing conditions tighten, the debt maturity wall doesn't just create credit stress, it forces asset sales that reduce the very liquidity needed to refinance, and the two legs of the system start feeding each other in the wrong direction. So the question is whether the warning indicators are signaling stress in the cycle or the beginning of the self-reinforcing loop that turns a refinancing problem into a systemic one.