there is an interesting opportunity in betting on April BoJ on Polymarket at the moment. The trade is cheap to what OIS is implying in rates markets, the narrative around the durability of the BoJ reaction function through financial market volatility has evolved with last weeks Summary of Opinions and the weakness of the Yen will keep the pressure on the BoJ to act. I think there should likely be a 20% chance that they do not hike in April given the FCI backdrop, but at 53% this trade feels like good EV relative my implied assumption and the current OIS strip.