I’ve come to believe that the only way to improve my forecasting ability, is to measure it methodically.

Meteorology solved this in 1950.

There’s a little math formula called the Brier Score that penalizes overconfidence when forecasts are wrong and rewards well-calibrated probabilities when they are right.

Imagine scoring your investment forecasts this way (And yes, it also works if you are active on Polymarket.)

Not returns. Just forecast quality.

Process > outcome.

(more thoughts on this below)