Excellent analysis. I suspect the sub-munitions are not really independently targetable, so the MIRV/MARV distinctions are useful.

Some years ago (1988), I was part of an APS arms-control study that looked at missile targeting accuracy. One of our conclusions, although it didn’t get a lot of attention, was that once the accuracy was good enough, you don''t need nuclear weapons, or even explosives, for a lot of missions, the kinetic energy was enough.

Now, 36 years later…