I’m writing an article on a new and improved version of FeedForward, and so I’ve been testing it out a lot in the process.

In addition to going broad and looping in historical data, I also like to surface trends and developments I’m seeing. Here’s one:

The continued erosion of rules-based order

"Hierarchy Without Order" An SCMP opinion piece (scmp.com/opinion/world-… from March 12) describes the current geopolitical state as "hierarchy without order" where major powers claim exceptional rights to act unilaterally while international law persists as vocabulary but not binding constraint.

My favorite line:

That is precisely the point, though: legal language still structures the debate, but it no longer reliably restrains the strongest actors. Rules survive as vocabulary, not as hard limits. States still justify, deny, reinterpret and litigate, but they increasingly act first and explain later.

Separately, Ursula von der Leyen suggested that relying on the rule of law alone was misguided, and that Europe should instead be a bit more selfish and defensive — calling for a “more realistic and interest-driven foreign policy”

… Europe can no longer be a custodian for the old-world order, for a world that has gone and will not return. We will always defend and uphold the rules-based system that we helped to build with our allies, but we can no longer rely on it as the only way to defend our interests or assume its rules will shelter us from the complex threats that we face. So we need to build our own European path and find new ways of cooperating with partners.

Some food for thought. As I like to say, laws are norms, and norms only work if people follow them.

I’ll have a new post out either tomorrow or Wednesday.