On the trade war:

I don't think Trump's coalition actually wants to zero out the trade balance. I think they want continue to get things for free* from the rest of the world. [* technically in exchange for freshly printed future claims on dollar assets].

The problem the Trump coalition recognizes, is the chronic deficit led to Asia replacing US as the economic center. Consequently but with a lag, US and G7 dominance of global financial services is eroding. Further erosion leads to US out of the loop in the financial services, and the reason for the world to give the US free stuff will go away.

So in that light, I think the move to put in gonzo trade barriers is a transparent bluff and hostage taking attempt. Trump admin, I believe, wants to get concessions from other countries, but those concessions are NOT to have, e.g. Taiwan or Vietnam offer "0% for 0%" which is simply free trade. Trump admin already refused this, belying their initial statements of the policy goal.

In reality, I think Trump admin wants to put in "deals" which block as many countries as they can from using non-US or at least non-G7 financial services. This is such an important thing, they're willing to gamble the US economy on it. Trump admin apparently expects that intervention by the FED and G7 central banks are sufficient to win the standoff and extract the concessions.

China called their bluff. Game on.

Citibank estimated that the latest 100% tariffs on China will result in a 0.5% reduction of Chinese GDP growth: from +4.7% to +4.2%. US will get hurt more than that - even if they manage the side effects flawlessly. And they won’t, there’s too much greed and profiteering, and the domestic supply chains aren’t ready for a shock this big.

Trump will have to either escalate again, or really focus on harming other Asian countries. But after all 20 years of shameless mendacity and sociopathic behavior by the US, I don’t think they’ll get far - even if local elites in many ostensibly neutral countries help Trump because their personal wealth may be hostage in US banks.