Make money doing the work you believe in

Correlations change in days. Rolling windows adapt in weeks. That lag costs real money.

This paper introduces a Transformer + Graph Neural Network that forecasts 10-day-ahead stock–stock correlations — and uses them directly for statistical arbitrage clustering.

  • Predicts correlations in Fisher-z residual space (stable, realistic),

  • Learns regime-aware market structure via graph attention,

  • Preserves the shape of the correlation network (not just point accuracy).

The payoff?

  • Sharpe 1.84 vs 0.65 for the S&P 500,

  • −9% max drawdown vs −34%,

  • Biggest gains during crises, when backward-looking clusters fail.

The insight is simple but powerful: Stop trading yesterday’s correlation network. Trade tomorrow’s.

Jan 9
at
6:08 AM
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