I respect the attempt at objectivity here but it ends up becoming sane washing of both Trump and Putin. A few things that are pretty obvious to me:
When fighting NATO, size of land border is pretty minor. I don't think Russia will be celebrating their successful defense of some line across Europe after every major city has been turned into a nuclear crater.
Thus we are left with the conclusion that's pretty obvious to anyone not blinded by too much geopolitical knowledge - Putin’s goals in Ukraine are primarily emotional. Just like you could come up with many justifications for Operation Iraqi Freedom, at the end of the day it's unlikely to have happened if anyone other than the son of the Gulf War president wasn't calling the shot. Likewise Putin sees taking Ukraine as his destiny.
As for Trump, he never has an actual plan and has neither the knowledge nor the attention span to formulate one. Ending the Ukraine war was a 2024 talking point, not a plan. Drill baby drill is also a talking point that dates back to Sarah Palin in 2008 and never had anything to do with fighting Russia. As in Afghanistan, Trump may very well sign a bad deal, either heavily pressuring Ukraine or excluding them entirely, just to avoid the embarrassment of failure. That's the most likely outcome, followed closely by doing nothing and hoping everyone forgets.
Given his unpredictability, there's some non zero chance Trump continues taking the fight to Russia - but that cuts against the fact that he's surrounded himself with pro Russia people. If Axis Tulsi is his intelligence director, his information will be filtered through a very pro Russia lens. So if he doesn't gravitate to Putin immediately, he probably will eventually.
Feb 14
at
2:43 AM
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