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Revisiting this piece from last year, which had some predictions for the European industrial & logistics (I&L) real estate market in 2025:
European I&L investment volume > €40bn.Correct - but just barely. CBRE figures see €40.6bn in 2025, JLL just under
European I&L more likely to fall than rise in 2025 and end up below 5%.Mostly a miss. Yields did decline slightly over the course of the year, but did so very gradually, ending up at 5.25%.
Decline in yields and ~3% rental growth result in property returns (as measured by Green Street CPPI) of 5% - 10%.Miss - Green Street estimate that European industrial & logistics values increased by ~4.5% in 2025. This is roughly in-line with market rental growth, which JLL saw in the mid 4% range at Q4 2025.
The set up for European I&L in 2026 looks stable but not necessarily accelerating. New supply has come down from the recent peak but remains above pre-COVID levels. Leasing appears to have stabilized slightly ahead of pre-COVID levels as well. Green Street see 7.9% unlevered property-level returns on a buy-and hold basis.
