ASLI.L announced the sale of their last French asset in Avignon at €47.5m. This was a strong price, a ~4.6% yield and €1,700 per sq m, was in-line with their Q3 2025 valuation, and reflected a 20% premium to where I had the asset marked.

With only 2 assets left, and recent sales being broadly in-line with the Q3 2025 valuations, a gap had opened up with my valuation estimates ~20% ahead of what I estimate the Q3 2025 marks for the remaining two assets is.

Working back through past reports, the biggest factor I have been missing is that I wasn’t including the €0.7m per annum ground lease payment at their warehouse in Den Horn. I adjusted for this and have tweaked yields to reflect recent transaction comparables and the move in European long-term bond yields.

This gets me to a valuation on the remaining 2 properties of €71m (down from €81m before these tweaks), which still reflects a ~6% premium to what I estimate is the pro forma 2025 Q3 valuation.

As a reference point, the one Dutch property sale since this valuation - Waddinxveen, which had a similar building age / tenancy / lease profile as Ede - was at a ~4% premium to the 2025 Q3 valuation.

Remaining portfolio:

• Den Horn, Netherlands: I value at ~€45m, 5.75% yield / €1,000 per square meter. Built in 2020, leased to Van der Helm, a Dutch 3PL with ~4yrs of remaining lease term. Located in a good distribution location between Rotterdam and the Hague where market rents have risen and are nearing €100 per sq m. The property is arguably under-rented. Rental income of €3.6 (€85 PSF) at a ~93% NRI margin and less €0.7m of ground lease payments results in €2.6m of NRI. They acquired the property for €50m in Jan 2020 at a 4.5% yield.

• Ede, Netherlands: I value at €26m, 6.00% yield / €660 per sq m. Built in 1983 and refurbished in 2005. Leased to Kruidvat, a Dutch drugstore / pharmacy chain and subsidiary of AS Watson (itself a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings), with ~7.5yrs of lease term remaining. Second tier distribution market (Arnhelm / Nijmegen) where market rents are ~€80 per sq m but have risen. In-place rents are very low at €43 per sq m but this is an older asset, has a significant office component and is a non-traditional L-shape. ASLI agreed a 5yr lease extension in 2023 at the current rents and while the lease provides for inflation-linked escalations, I don’t a lot of upside to rents. Rental income of €1.7m is NRI of €1.6m at a 93% margin. They acquired the property for €26.5m in August 2018 at a 6.3% yield.

In terms of overall valuation, at £0.275 (€0.32) per share ASLI trades at an implied 7.3% GIY (assuming no purchaser costs, which is how yields are typically benchmarked in the Netherlands) and €700 per square meter.

At my valuation - and assuming the full liquidation costs / deferred tax liability, and potential latent SPV capital gains tax from the June & September 2025 NAVs, I get a liquidation value of €0.35 per share and see it trading at a 10% discount. While not terribly wide, with 2 assets left to sell, both of which are in due diligence, I think a final outcome here will come before summer so within 3-4 months.

At my pro forma estimate of the 2025 Q3 independent valuation, I see net liquidation value of €0.34 per share or a ~7% discount.

Assuming the last two assets are sold and a final liquidating distribution is announced in the next 3-6 months, the midpoint of my valuation / 2025 Q3 valuation results in a 8% - 11% total return, but 20% - 40% annualized return.

Risk is non-zero - European rates have risen, which affects market liquidity and pricing, Europe is probably the most exposed to the economic impact of higher energy prices, European industrial / logisticsREITS have sold off significantly - but the fact only two assets remain and they are reasonable lot sizes and trade at an attractive implied valuation today, gives me comfort around the downside risk.

For what its worth, I am buying a little more of this but keeping it as a “full” position not a super-size one.