Make money doing the work you believe in

FrontView reported Q2 2026 earnings last week. Due to a combination of my trim decision in June and the evolution of the company from distressed “deep value” adolescence to stabilized net lease adulthood, I plan to spend less time on quarterly updates absent a major change or event.

Highlights:

  • Increased AFFO guidance again to $1.33 per share at the midpoint, reflecting 7% growth vs. 2025. This puts them up with Essential Properties Trust (EPRT) leading net lease REITs for estimated AFFO growth this year. They bumped net acquisition guidance to $120m from $110m.

  • Acquired $58m in the quarter and $92m YTD at 7.3% and 7.4% cap rates respectively, funded in part by dispositions of $23m in Q2 and $33m YTD at 7.1% cap rates.

  • As discussed in their capital markets update they tapped their at-the-market program to sell 2.6m shares at $19.50 on a forward delivery basis. About 1/3 settled with the remainder unsettled and available along with $50m of preferred equity to draw by November 2026.

  • Portfolio is performing well at 99.4% occupancy with just 2 vacant properties, they renewed 3 leases in the quarter with a >20% increase in rent and re-tenanted a vacant former Walgreens to Amazon at flat rent, 2% annual uplifts, and no tenant incentive.

  • The sleep number bankruptcy was the only tenant issue, this affects 2 properties / 0.5% of ABR as of Q2 2026. However, post-period end 1 property was sold at a 6.5% cap rate, leaving exposure at just 1 property / 33 bps of ABR. They’ve assumed 20 bps of bad debt (as part of their unchanged 50 bps assumption for 2026) but this is not yet incurred.

Commentary

Shares sold off a couple % after earnings and are down ~10% from their peak of $22 in mid-July. They’re right around where I decided to trim in June. I don’t think this reflects any specific issue with the company - more valuation gravity as they now trade roughly in-line with peers on an AFFO multiple basis.

An indicator is this is their investor presentation has now turned to looking at Price / Earnings to Growth as a comparable metric to peers to justify a higher share price now that they’re no longer optically cheap on an AFFO multiple basis. Good problems to have.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a period in which the shares don’t do a whole lot as it gets harder to beat the positive expectations that have been incorporated into the stock price after a period of strong share price and fundamental performance.

However, management have executed well on both external and internal growth, they’ve earned a cost of capital that has unlocked the net lease virtuous cycle at current asset pricing, the portfolio appears to be in good shape, and this is a fairly simple, predictable business that they’ve supplemented with some of the best disclosures in the business, so you can have a high level of confidence you know what’s going on.

I think a reasonable valuation range is $19 - $20 per share, which reflects 14x - 15× 2026e AFFO, and a 7.25% - 7.50% cap rate.

I’m on vacation so this is a little over a week late but FrontView released a Q2 capital markets update on July 1, 2026.

In Q2 they acquired 17 properties for a purchase price of $58.2 million with a cash yield of ~7.3% and sold 10 properties for an aggregate $22.9 million, including 9 occupied properties with a cash yield of ~7.1%, resul…

Aug 9
at
3:00 PM
Relevant people

Log in or sign up

Join the most interesting and insightful discussions.