Most investors get trapped in the "Inside View." They fall in love with a story, a founder, or a "disruptive" product.

But the Outside View (Base Rates) tells you how often companies in that sector, of that size, at their stage of maturity, etc., actually succeed.

If your thesis ignores historical data & historical case studies of similar theses that failed, you aren't doing enough.

The "Accurate Picture" requires both!