lots to unpack in today’s trade data release (for April 2026), but one data point that stands out is the increased value of US imports of fertilizer from Russia which were 313m in April, higher than any point in the last 5+ years and likely longer. With urea (and some phosphate trade) constrained by Strait closures, price commanded by Russia rose.

The bill for Canadian fertilizer was up too - over $400m as part of a bigger fertilizer bill (and a fuel one). But this is a prime example of how policy relating to Iran is constraining other policy and economic goals.