I'm not sure Iran had a deal. I suspect Iran was sold out by Russia. But Iran was also dithering, so they bear part of the blame. Hezbollah acts on its own, not on Iran orders.
Think about it. A few years ago, the Syrian forces fought for their country. A few years later, they suddenly decide to quit? Syria is not Iraq. Russian and Syrian intelligence knew nothing about their officers being bought off, despite being in constant contact since 2015?
Notice that Russian officers in Syria continued the fight. They weren't told. It was PUTIN who pulled the plug. Without Russia, Iran was in no position to continue, and as I said, they are scared of the US war.
Face it - at the meeting, Russian and Iran could have read the riot act to Erdogan and threatened him with all sorts of reprisals. Russia could have pounded the insurgents with missiles from the Med and Black Sea fleet as well as more fighter-bombers, and poured in ten thousand troops, Ukraine or not. He folded.
Why Putin pulled the plug is unclear. But it's the sort of mistake he makes - relying on "deals" and nuanced diplomacy - which is why Idlib was allowed. The Russian bases will be lost eventually, whatever "deal" he made with the new regime.
Now the insurgents will have access to the entire Syrian army which is close to 200,000, with 800 tanks, 800 IFVs, missiles,. etc. They own a country now.
This means Lebanon is doomed. And what is Qassem doing? He's "observing the 'ceasefire" while putting off retaliation against Israel for the violations on the Lebanese Army - which is a joke.
And when push comes to shove with Iran, Putin will sell out Iran. And everyone like Martyanov will say, "Well, Russia doesn't fight Iran's wars for them."
Convenient.
You're either in the fight or you've lost the fight. Russia will eventually pay for its mistakes. Everyone does. There are no exceptions.
Which IS my last comment on this subject. I'll be unsubscribing to all Substacks which cover this subject effective immediately.