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With all due respect I wouldn't be so optimistic: US companies have only re-entered Iraq in the last 6 MONTHS. You know, that country we invaded 23 years ago and spent $3 Trillion and countless lives to overthrow. It took THAT LONG for US companies (XOM, CVX, HKN, KKR) to feel comfortable enough with the local security and political situation to finally invest in the Iraqi oil patch.

Meanwhile thanks to fracking the U.S. has gone from producing only 8 MMBl/d of oil in 2004 to producing 13.5 MMBl/d in 2024, while reducing it's consumption from a high of 21 MMBl/d in 2005 to 19.5 MMBl/d in 2024. The U.S. became a net petroleum products exporter in that timeframe and now exports 6 MMBl/d of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products thanks to all that excess refining capacity, along with 3 MMBl/d of light crude oil that the rest of the world pays a premium for because they never invested in heavy oil refining capacity. The U.S. is now energy independent in terms of oil and related products.

And don't forget U.S. GDP has almost DOUBLED over that timeframe too, showing how less oil-intensive our economy is than say the 1970's during the height of the oil shocks. Fighting wars over oil is so LAST CENTURY!

Short Thoughts: January 5, 2026
Jan 6
at
4:37 PM
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