I am honored to participate in the opening panel of the Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026, organized by the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence.

This year I will join Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, former NATO Assistant Secretary General David Cattler, and other distinguished participants to discuss:"Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Impact on Reassurance and Deterrence?"

My central argument is straightforward:The war is entering a new phase. But Russia is not escalating because it is stronger. It is escalating because it believes the political cost of escalation has fallen.

Among the issues I hope to discuss:

• Why authoritarian regimes respond to incentives and exploit perceived weakness.

• Why Russia's missile strikes are not merely military operations, but also information operations designed to shape perceptions and exhaust democratic societies.

• Why the center of gravity in this war is increasingly shifting from territorial conquest toward political endurance, alliance cohesion, and deterrence credibility.

• Why Russia's growing brutality may reflect not confidence, but strategic frustration and failure.The key question is no longer simply whether Ukraine can continue to fight.

It can.

The question is whether democratic societies can maintain strategic clarity and political endurance longer than authoritarian regimes can sustain repression.

More information about the conference:

#RigaStratComDialogue