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America cannot long remain free, nor first among nations, if it becomes the kind of place where universities are dismantled because they don't align politically with the current head of the government.
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I don't know, 50/50 odds on a fuzzy M&A bid coming from a Reuter's piece seems fine? Did you have more color here that made you extra confident everything would go through?
More generally, the thing that's been kind of exhausting lately is that every drop in every name just immediately turns into a falling knife. A giant corporation has a bad quarter and suddenly its stock is down 25%. $100bn+ in market cap wiped out in an eye blink. Not because of deep fraud or anything, just a bad quarter. Weak earnings and light guidance is suddenly a death knell.
What if the MGI deal didn't come through because of some random issue? With order books this thin, I'd be worried about getting stuck in at 5 rather than finding an orderly reversion to 7, down more than twice as much as I ever thought I'd profit on the upside.
There's all kinds of gives and takes you can do on pricing/trade risk/etc but I guess my basic surprise is that you think 50/50 odds is "too cheap". Just doesn't seem that crazy for the overall market environment right now?
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Feb 16, 2022
at
3:30 PM
I think that delaying their earnings release by a week and canceling the conference call is a huge signal that a deal is imminent. Perhaps we find out tomorrow.