000 “An Introduction to this Substack”

Donald Rumsfeld warned after the 9/11 attacks that, in retrospect it was due to a “lack of imagination”.  Surely there’s something to explore about this bold accusation.  No one predicted that a stateless rebel group funded by a man half the world away would use airliners as missles to bring the strongest nation to its knees one sunny morning in the middle of the worlds financial capital.  While it shouldn’t be a state mandate to “imagine” in unorthodox ways, how geopolitical tragedies could start, there is evidence in echoes of the past that this is exactly how major events unfold.  Pearl Harbor, anyone?

With the onset of the Iran war it’s a good time to initiate this thought experiment.  No one would have expected that Iran, after a half decade drought and civilian unrest, would be able to stand toe to toe with the most dominant military in the world.  And now, the commonly understood truth and reality of freedom of navigation (that is a free and safe right to traverse the nations waterways) would be a thing of the past.  At least in the Hormuz Straight.  But that is exactly what is unfolding.

What then could happen next in this geopolitical mess?  What, if anything will the great geopolitical thinkers of our time get wrong due to a lack of imagination?

Week by week, bit by bit, this sub stack will outline what is possible that seems nearly impossible.

-August 7th, 2026, Ryan Babb