Interesting technical analysis on gold via Kitco.

I think that is fair. Short term bullish bounce. Medium term downside risk to $3,500. Long-term upside as monetary easing kicks in. This is a very difficult market in which equities look faux safe to me. New cash I would commit to energy as it fades in the belief that Trump has “solved” the Middle East and can move on to more fully persecute Cuba. I think the wise thing to do, for those (like me) who own gold but no bonds is to trade some gold for bonds. In Australia, this works as our currency is pro-cyclical. It will sag on the rush to USD, and Aussie bond yields will move north. Try to catch that before our equity market sags. Within the equity market, bond proxies like REITS have already sagged, so maybe allocate some there. We presently have Aurizon AZJ in the model, but I think gas pipeline play APA also looks good. Woodside energy has rallied, but I would only add to that if energy sags this week and gold miners rally.

This is just about the craziest market I have seen.

It is not the speed of movement; but the upside-down nature.

Gold is behaving like a risk asset, and I think that is because the Gulf States are having serious budgetary issues when they cannot sell oil. Eventually, this will hit US treasuries hard. Right now, it is hitting gold. The “Rainy Day Fund” effect is taking over when gold ought to be strong. This does not augur well for equities if we do not resolve this crisis soon.

Bonds will be the haven, in my view, if the economy tanks.

This is never a 100% decision.

Some gold now. Less gold, more bonds.