New piece: Helium.

The entire crisis narrative rests on one number: semiconductors consume 21-24% of global helium. That number is real. It is also the wrong number.

After recycling, the actual fresh helium need is 2-5% of the global market. The vulnerability story might largely collapse, or it might be worse than anyone thinks. The answer depends on a single variable nobody can measure.

We walked through the supply math, stress-tested the recycling assumptions, mapped the distribution oligopoly, and built the scenario framework. ~6,000 words. Bloomberg terminal data throughout.

The most important insight: if you already have a Hormuz view, you already have a helium view. You just didn't know it.