Trump addressed the nation last night. Said the war is "nearing completion." Said he'll hit Iran "extremely hard" for two to three weeks. Then said the Strait of Hormuz will "open up naturally" and told other countries to "grab it and cherish it."

Brent surged 8%. The V-shaped recovery crowd lasted about nineteen minutes.

Three days ago I published the thesis for why the post-ceasefire recovery is physically impossible on the timeline the market is pricing. Last night the President confirmed the setup: the US is ending the war without reopening the Strait. No mine clearance plan. No insurance framework. No answer for who cold-starts the refineries or fabricates the cryogenic heat exchangers Qatar needs from the one facility in Florida that makes them.

Every post-conflict oil recovery in the modern era took longer than the market expected. Kuwait, the best case, took two and a half years under perfect conditions. Qatar's LNG damage is three to five years minimum. The forward curve is pricing weeks for both.

There Is No V-Shape. Part VII of Epic Fury is live for paid subscribers.