How do you sort the CapEx from the CrapEx? You always have more projects than money.

So before you run a full evaluation on every idea, you need a quick filter.

Here’s what I use:

1) Payback Period — simple, cash-flow friendly, and everyone gets it

2) NPV Per $ Invested — lets you compare projects with a common denominator

Plot them on a bubble chart (bubble size = investment size) and the picture becomes clear fast. Best projects sit bottom right. Weakest, top left.

But it's not just about the numbers ... I also look at:

- Fit to strategy. A project can look great on paper and quietly destroy your business. LVMH could improve margins tomorrow by outsourcing production to an automated factory. It would also gut everything their brands stand for. Strategy is true north.

- Hard return vs. Soft return. Hard return = proven payback (cost removal, proven rollouts). Tight distribution. High confidence. Soft return = speculative payback (new markets, unproven demand). Wider distribution, but the upside can be a 10x. Neither is better. The bet is just different.

That's how i think about it anyway ...